AIB Data: Can Traders Learn From AIB Statistics in Guarantee of Origin (GO) Markets?

If you trade Guarantees of Origin (GOs), the Association of Issuing Bodies (AIB) is the central data repository for fundamental market data. Let me explain:

The (AIB) runs the European Energy Certificate System (EECS) and the Hub that connects national registries. Market traders include utilities, suppliers, corporates, and brokers, the core players.

Why AIB data matters: AIB’s datasets reveal fundamental, transaction-infrastructure level data, as their AIB-Hub is the central architecture for GOs in Europe. Acting as the inter-registry message bus for Guarantee of Origin transfers, it was relaunched in April 2025 to accommodate nearly 20x growth since 2012 and re-engineered from a monolith to a modular, decoupled architecture.

AIB also separates statistics by production date which reflects when electricity was generated and by transaction date which reflects when issuance, transfers, imports, exports, cancellations, or expiries occurred. That split helps traders time hedges around disclosure deadlines and certificate lifetimes. Needless to say, AIB data is critical to monitor supply versus demand and the timing of flows.

What AIB publish, and how to combine it

Firstly, AIB Annual Reports. Use for structural context, seasonal patterns, and cross border corridors. Treat this as your benchmark for liquidity assumptions and long term trend checks. Whilst only a yearly resource, the AIB Annual Reports provide a condensed view of market scale, trends, and cross border integration.

But, without a doubt, the most critical AIB data resource is the monthly AIB Statistics. Whilst traders should definitely explore these data sources to experiment with various combinations to find patterns that aren’t widely interpreted, common use-cases for the data provided in the two main views (production and transaction) are explored below.

1. Production year view lists issued, expired, cancelled. Every single month, it enables:
   • Cancellation to Issuance Ratio (CIR) = cancellations divided by issuance for a given vintage. A higher CIR signals stronger end demand relative to supply for that vintage, which often correlates with tighter availability and firmer prices.
   • Overhang = issued minus cancelled minus expired for a given vintage. Overhang is a supply measure unique to commodities that have vintage periods (expiry dates), indicating what remains from a particular vintage. A large positive overhang implies slack supply, while a small overhang suggests scarcity risk.
   • Current free float = outstanding, unexpired, transferable GOs at a given date. It quantifies tradable supply that drives liquidity and price discovery, and it pairs well with other signals to assess scarcity.
2. Transaction date view lists transfers, imports, exports, cancellations, expiries. Every single month, it opens up the following possibilities:
   • Transfer velocity = transfers divided by outstanding. Velocity equivalates to market churn; meaning that rising velocity with steady free float points to greater liquidity and more market activity, while low velocity can foreshadow wider bid ask spreads.
   • Import reliance = net imports divided by cancellations, where net imports equal imports minus exports. A higher value shows domestic demand is being actively met by cross border supply, which helps identify cross-border signals, basis risk, and likely price support in import dependent markets.
   • Expiry pressure = cancellations executed in the last 60 to 90 days before expiry divided by outstanding. Elevated expiry pressure can indicate a surge in compliance driven, last minute buying, flagging short term price spikes and/or liquidity squeezes.

Another vital resource is the European Residual Mix. If residual renewable share falls while cancellations lag, expect catch up buying near supplier disclosure deadlines. Use this to forecast quarter one and quarter two tightening.

AIB also publishes third-party price data as Indicative pricing. Helpful for context, but these are third party sources rather than AIB data. True fundamental market analysis relies on registry data - especially as the likelihood of bias and agenda increases with data from private entities that may not hold a neutral view of or exposure to the market.

Finally, national datasheets: These do not contain transaction activity like the monthly statistics, but they should be used together. Treat the national datasheets as a parameter file to build on. For each jurisdiction, capture certificate lifetime, disclosure deadlines, issuance cadence, import recognition rules, treatment of ex domain cancellations, residual mix source, and the technology or fuel taxonomy. Translate these into three reusable curves:

• A supply-release curve from issuance rules
• A compliance-demand curve from disclosure timing
• A cross-border eligibility curve from import rules and operational latency (predictable processing delays such as issuance batches, queue times, cut-offs, and checks)

Overlay these curves on the AIB monthly statistics to compute domestic balance, carry in (the starting stock of valid, transferable GOs), and expected cancellations by deadline, then estimate an import premium based on import eligibility and typical clearing delays. This gives you a country-neutral view that shows when each market will tighten, gauges basis risk (the gap between the local price and an import or benchmark price), and highlights periods when prices are likely to find support.

To wrap up - very, very high-caliber data exists at the center of this market, you just have to experiment with using it, and try to find an edge that nobody else has found.

Perhaps you already have one. So, are you interested in buying GOs and building a position?

Email trade@soldera.org to get started, or join our tender list here.